World Cup

Just a few days in, several mild surprises, and one sensation:

  • Win to Russia was expected, but by 5 goals?
  • France 'only' won by 2-1 over Australia (giving up that goal might come back to haunt them at the end of group play).
  • The current Argentina team is not up to the standards of previous tournaments (they barely qualified), but Iceland held them to 1-1 draw!!!!!

Of course I am rooting for Denmark (who missed 2nd seed spot by one placement on FIFA world rankings at time the groups were populated).  There was some concern prior to the match against Peru, but despite the heavy pressure from Peru, they held on for 1-0 win.  

However, they lost a midfielder to a broken rib in the match, so they are now down to 22 players for the rest of the tournament.


My daughter is presently watching the Germany vs Mexico match at the German embassy in DC.

I expect some interesting reporting from her later.


tomcat said:
Just a few days in, several mild surprises, and one sensation:


  • Win to Russia was expected, but by 5 goals?
  • France 'only' won by 2-1 over Australia (giving up that goal might come back to haunt them at the end of group play).
  • The current Argentina team is not up to the standards of previous tournaments (they barely qualified), but Iceland held them to 1-1 draw!!!!!
Of course I am rooting for Denmark (who missed 2nd seed spot by one placement on FIFA world rankings at time the groups were populated).  There was some concern prior to the match against Peru, but despite the heavy pressure from Peru, they held on for 1-0 win.  
However, they lost a midfielder to a broken rib in the match, so they are now down to 22 players for the rest of the tournament.

 My Peruvian ex is still suffering over that loss.

My best World Cup memories are from my time in Brazil during the World Cup which if I remember was held in Spain. Each night TVs were moved outside and if Brazil won the celebrations went on all night. Firecrackers exploded after every Gooooooooooal!


The other day I saw a news clip about the new legal sports betting in NJ. So many guys were betting Germany to win the World Cup. I wonder how many also bet they would beat Mexico today. Whoops.


Mexico 1 - Germany 0 = 2nd sensation.


Morganna said:


tomcat said:
Just a few days in, several mild surprises, and one sensation:


  • Win to Russia was expected, but by 5 goals?
  • France 'only' won by 2-1 over Australia (giving up that goal might come back to haunt them at the end of group play).
  • The current Argentina team is not up to the standards of previous tournaments (they barely qualified), but Iceland held them to 1-1 draw!!!!!
Of course I am rooting for Denmark (who missed 2nd seed spot by one placement on FIFA world rankings at time the groups were populated).  There was some concern prior to the match against Peru, but despite the heavy pressure from Peru, they held on for 1-0 win.  
However, they lost a midfielder to a broken rib in the match, so they are now down to 22 players for the rest of the tournament.
 My Peruvian ex is still suffering over that loss.
My best World Cup memories are from my time in Brazil during the World Cup which if I remember was held in Spain. Each night TVs were moved outside and if Brazil won the celebrations went on all night. Firecrackers exploded after every Gooooooooooal!

In 1968 (living in Denmark), I used to have my alarm set for 2 AM, so I could watch the evening games in Mexico.

Then, some 8-10 years ago I was in Buenos Aires, when a local team won the South American cup for clubs, and my hotel was on  the main drag.  That party didn't end till about 5 AM.


Brazil 1 - Switzerland 1

The 'close to the top' teams are getting better at sticking to their game plans!


Couldn't resist doing a little analyzing.  Taking FIFA rankings for all 32 teams remaining in the tournament:

The average group strength (lower number = stronger group):

Group E  =  16.3

Group C  =  16.5

Group G  =  22.8

Group B  =  23.0

Group D  =  23.8

Group F  =  24.3

Group H  =  28.0

Group A  =  49.0    (Russia, Uruguay, Egypt & Saudi Arabia)

Granted, as hosts Russia gets a top seed (irrespective of their #70 ranking on the FIFA list), but they also managed to get two lightweight opponents into their group.  Creative drawing?




tomcat said:
Couldn't resist doing a little analyzing.  Taking FIFA rankings for all 32 teams remaining in the tournament:
The average group strength (lower number = stronger group):
Group E  =  16.3
Group C  =  16.5
Group G  =  22.8
Group B  =  23.0
Group D  =  23.8
Group F  =  24.3
Group H  =  28.0
Group A  =  49.0    (Russia, Uruguay, Egypt & Saudi Arabia)
Granted, as hosts Russia gets a top seed (irrespective of their #70 ranking on the FIFA list), but they also managed to get two lightweight opponents into their group.  Creative drawing?




The fact that Russia has so low of a ranking definitely distorts the average. But even if you take out the seeded teams, they do seem to have the easiest draw of the last remaining teams.

They managed to get the 7th (of 8) team in pot 2, 6th in pot 3 and 7th in pot 4.

If FIFA was trying to rig things and not get noticed then this is a conceivable draw, of course when FIFA awarded the world cups to Russia and Qatar at the same time when neither had a good bid we learned that they don't really try to sugarcoat their corruption when it happens!



We all know that the old process was corrupt.  I can't recall how many regional bosses/FIFA VPs are going to jail, but I am thinking that the number was 8-10.

I am not saying that Russia manipulated the draw, but considering everything else we know about their activities, there is a certain 'aroma' about this.





tomcat said:
Couldn't resist doing a little analyzing.  Taking FIFA rankings for all 32 teams remaining in the tournament:
The average group strength (lower number = stronger group):

Look at the rankings, though: Switzerland and Poland ahead of Spain? Belgium four spots ahead of France? I’m no expert, but the Gunner in my house advises me that the rankings can be gamed to an extent by stacking your friendlies with cupcakes.


DaveSchmidt said:


tomcat said:
Couldn't resist doing a little analyzing.  Taking FIFA rankings for all 32 teams remaining in the tournament:
The average group strength (lower number = stronger group):
Look at the rankings, though: Switzerland and Poland ahead of Spain? Belgium four spots ahead of France? I’m no expert, but the Gunner in my house advises me that the rankings can be gamed to an extent by stacking your friendlies with cupcakes.

 FIFA rankings have always been crap, at one point they were crappy enough that they weren't actually used for the seeding. If FIFA rankings were used for seeds in 2006 then the US would have been seeded as we were 4th at the time. Of course, the scheme they used had us coming in 9th and just avoiding us getting a seed.

FIFA did revamp the rankings in 2006 and they've at least been a little better since.

Most people who are looking for a more accurate ranking system tend to prefer the ELO rankings:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Football_Elo_Ratings

This is what 538 used to analyze world cup draws, and they still found Russia's to be the easiest ever in the current format.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/russias-group-is-the-easiest-in-modern-world-cup-history/




I was not aware of the ELO rankings.  Redoing the analysis based on ELO rankings does not change much:

Group E  =  17.8

Group C  =  16.8

Group G  =  28.8

Group B  =  17.5

Group D  =  23.5

Group F  =  19.5

Group H  =  23.5

Group A  =  42.0    (Russia, Uruguay, Egypt & Saudi Arabia)

Group G is somewhat weaker than indicated by FIFA rankings, and Group A remains the creampuff buffet (in view of Russia doping scandals, etc., a rather odious draw).



Croatia 3 - Argentina 0

How the mighty have fallen!  


And Australia drew with Denmark...


joanne said:
And Australia drew with Denmark...

Harvard beats Yale 29-29.


DaveSchmidt said:


joanne said:
And Australia drew with Denmark...
Harvard beats Yale 29-29.

 Iceland beats Argentina 1-1


Argentina pooped the bed.  What a disaster for Messi.


joanne said:
And Australia drew with Denmark...

 I might never forgive you for that (on a penalty awarded by VAR).


yahooyahoo said:
Argentina pooped the bed.  What a disaster for Messi.

Considering how close Argentina came to not qualifying, it is not terribly surprising that they are close to elimination now.  Messi is great, but he can't do it alone (and he did miss a penalty against Iceland).


tomcat said:


joanne said:
And Australia drew with Denmark...
 I might never forgive you for that (on a penalty awarded by VAR).

 We’d rather it wasn’t with the VAR, too cheese But, hey... 


VAR reverses Neymar's penalty.  Why didn't he get a yellow card for diving?


Argentina squeaks through. Messi still overrated. 


ElizMcCord said:
Argentina squeaks through. Messi still overrated. 

 In Buenos Aires 10 days ago.  The commentary was great players, no team.  Today they proved to have a squad against a very capable Nigerian group, and Messi did deliver.  Overrated is not something you can accuse Messi of being.  Now Neymar, that's a story for another day....



Prior to today's matches, only Peru was out from group C.  If Australia had won the match against Peru, it would have forced DK to at least tie with France.  They did anyway, so they moved on afterall.

We now have the honor of playing Croatia next. 


Tomcat, little comfort for Aussie supporters...  gulp 


*gasp!* Germany’s out!


joanne said:
*gasp!* Germany’s out!

Nobody is more thrilled than Mexico. 


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