Reading tea leaves in the final stretch

Honestly it's actually a bit too stressful for me; I don't know how much I'll actually be on MOL the next few days. But here is a shockingly hopeful omen:

Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how

Someone I know via other social media who has in the past worked on several presidential campaigns in a data science and analytics capacity said, a few days ago, that one early sign he'd be looking for would be this poll -- that if Trump was up by more than 11 that would be a bad sign for Harris, and if he was up by less than 8 it would be a very good sign for Harris.

The poll has Harris ahead by three.

Those with more stamina than I feel free to use this thread to speculate wildly about what all this means.

PVW said:

Honestly it's actually a bit too stressful for me; I

I'm a freaking basket case. I can't even look at polls any more.

That f***er pretend to jerk off and fellate his mike today. What episode of Twilight Zone are we in?

My son lives in Philly. and he's taking off from work for a few day to canvass and phone bank in PA. He's very passionate about this.

Wonder where he gets that from?

I am confident Kamala wins this election. No anxiety here. It’s not going to help if we all become negative and stressed out, keep the good vibes flowing. 

Jaytee said:

I am confident Kamala wins this election. No anxiety here. It’s not going to help if we all become negative and stressed out, keep the good vibes flowing. 

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/11/01/late-night-open-thread-im-feeling-a-little-hope/

Apparently Harris will be on SNL tonight.

Here's a tea leaf I didn't expect.

https://www.axios.com/2024/11/03/harris-iowa-poll-trump-women

For some mental calm on Tuesday, please remember the Melbourne Cup horse race is being run on Australia’s Tuesday (your Mon afternoon & evening) at 3pm, with real horses and betting. Also all day,  there are awards in the Fashion Stakes for men, women, hats. And lots of fancy picnic catering. A lovely distraction for an hour or two. 
https://www.vrc.com.au/race-days-and-events/2024-2025/lexus-melbourne-cup-day/  (in theory you could win enough to cover migration if needed  )

(Apologies for being a wet blanket on good news.  Feel free to skip this post if you're as anxious as i am, or correct my errors.)

Iowa poll shows a notable and very welcome change.  But if i'm reading the graph in PVW's Des Moines Register piece right, you've got a 3-point lead in a survey where 5% said either Undecided or Don't Want to Say.  Not to mention 3.4% margin of error.  Still, +3 in Oct. looks different from -4 in Sept.?  Not that anything but an actual majority for K matters for the electoral college.

drummerboy said:

Apparently Harris will be on SNL tonight.

I predict shrinks in Greater Maplewood make their yearly nut in the next two weeks alone.  Enjoy those meds guys!