Tues Feb 22
Tonight: chance of light snow late this afternoon and evening.
The main event right now is overnight Thurs- Friday. Likely to start Thurs evening as snow, with a possible two inches or so before changeover. The big question is what falls during changeover, and for how long. Precipitation of some sort likely to last into Friday mid morning, and at some point likely to become straight rain. The duration of the wintery mix between the snow and rain, and whether it is sleet or freezing rain, is still up in the air. Most modeling leans toward mostly sleet with only minor icing at this time.
For clarity, sleet is refrozen snow that melted in the middle layers. It pings when it hits windows and things, and tends to be crunchy under foot. Freezing rain, which is what makes an ice storm, is liquid until impact and then freezes, and is slippery under foot.
Either way, travel Friday morning could be impacted until the road crews catch up.
Models have been fairly consistent over the last 24 hours regarding the messy winter storm Thursday-Friday.
Likely that precipitation starts as snow tomorrow evening between 7 and 9, becoming heavy after midnight. Snow changes over to sleet, also likely heavy at times, which could change over to straight rain before ending mid morning Friday. There may be a period of freezing rain, but little icing is expected.
On the ground, expect 2 - 3 inches of snow before changeover, then sleet accumulating, making the snowpack a heavy sodden mess.
Friday morning commute likely to be messy as cleanup will be ongoing and the heavy, if not deep, accumulation will be time consuming to clear. Whatever is not cleared by Friday night will freeze overnight Fri- Sat.
I expect the NWS will issue a Storm Advisory this evening or tomorrow morning. Also, this will be a major snow storm north of us and into New England.
Thurs, Feb 24
The NWS has issued a Winter Storm Advisory for a messy system overnight tonight into Friday morning.
Slight chance of light snow today.
The models continue to be in good agreement on timing. Snow is likely to arrive around midnight, changing over to a wintery mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain before ending mid morning Friday as all rain. 1 - 3 inches of heavy wet mixed snow and sleet could accumulate. There is also a likelihood of a glaze of ice from the freezing rain. The morning commute Friday is likely to be difficult.
After the rain ends, temps in the high 30s may not be enough to melt everything, and overnight Friday any uncleared surfaces could freeze. Be cautious on the roads late Friday and Saturday morning.
From the NWS:
Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
406 AM EST Thu Feb 24 2022
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
Western Union-Eastern Union-
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 PM EST FRIDAY...
* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total combined snow and
sleet accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of
around one tenth of an inch.
* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey.
* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Friday morning commute.
Slow down and use caution while traveling.
Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.
First image shows extent of possible snow/sleet accumulation.
Second image shows possible precipitation type around 5 am, with snow to our north and sleet and freezing rain locally.
Thurs afternoon update 2/24/22
The NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory from 10pm tonight until 1pm Friday for snow, sleet, and freezing rain.
Forecast mainly on track with a few tweeks. A warmer mid layer means a bit less snow and a bit more sleet, so now expecting 1" - 2" of total accumulation, still wet and messy. Increased possibility that mid morning changeover is to all rain for an hour or two, which would be great for clearing the slop out.
Still very concerned about the potential for freezing rain during the morning commute Friday.
Forecast: Snow tonight starting after midnight. By 4am will change over to sleet and freezing rain. Exact mix is unpredictable, so be prepared for the worst and hope for the best. that said, not expecting tree-snapping. power-outing levels of ice, but rather a glaze that could make travel difficult during the morning. Rain by mid-morning likely, ending around noon.
First image is the coordinated ice forecast from the NWS Philly and New York offices, We are in the yellow band of less than 1/10th of an inch.
Second image shows the snow forecast of 1" - 2"
my life is so boring these days that I look forward to these weather events
Max, we love your dedication to our weather safety. I was wondering if you might be interested in putting together a weather podcast Jamie could host on MOL. You could get with this guy for some pointers. ;-)
A verrrrrry very much NSFW weather report for Conway, New Hampshire tonight.https://fb.watch/bnZpzDLkaT/
Friday morning, 2/25
Sleet and freezing rain, sporadic and not too heavy, continues this morning, changing over to plain rain showers mid morning before tapering off around noon. Untreated surfaces are likely to be icy and road conditions may vary.
Warming up now, and several hours of above freezing temps this afternoon will help with clearing. Slight northward shift of the storm track brought less precipitation overall to our area, but what fell came as sleet and ice.
Cold tonight, standing water will freeze so be careful Saturday morning as black ice may occur.
ETA Winter Weather Advisory continues until 2pm
It’s crunchy, slippery, drizzly and gross out there right now.
Someday someone will invent a non-peeing dog and they will make a fortune.
Was very borderline out there about 1/2 hour ago. Need a couple of degrees temp rise. Be careful.
All the trees are still glistening but the ice is melting and falling off them now. In some spots it’s like it’s raining.
Especially under those big oak trees, it is like a concentrated hail storm. Nice to look at, but only from inside...
Our roof is being bombarded by the falling icicles. [ETA: Yep -- under a big old oak]
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