With the models trending colder in the most recent runs there is a growing consensus that we could see 2 - 4 inches of snow overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Precipitation would start out as rain late Monday afternoon, changing over to snow after the sun sets. This would likely be wet heavy snow, and there is a chance it changes back over to rain Tuesday morning. Highs Tuesday in the mid 30s.
We are also keeping our eyes on possible snow next weekend. More on that as the picture becomes clearer midweek.
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for tonight from the NWS. I expect it to be upgraded to a Winter Weeather Watch shortly. I will put details in the comments.
A powerful low pressure system moves into our area this afternoon likely bringing snow after 4 pm. Snow should continue all night, mixing with sleet. Although icing is a low possibility, it cannot be completely discounted. Sleet mixing likely will come and go at times as snow will likely continue into the morning hours.
Expect a messy morning rush hour.
Precipitation could change over to all rain mid morning, but that's likely to be brief as most precipitation should be over by the time things warm up.
With a high Tues in the upper 30s it is unlikely that this will all melt so expect some refreezing overnight Tues into Wed morning with continuing impacts on commuting.
The trend in the models has been a bit colder, but this is a complicated forecast as it puts the area just north of the rain/snow line for most of the event. Small shifts in the storm track could bring more rain or snow.
Expect 3 - 5 inches of mixed snow and sleet by mid-morning Tuesday.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
346 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2023
NJZ104-105-107-NYZ071-272300-
/O.EXT.KOKX.WW.Y.0002.230227T2300Z-230228T1800Z/
Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Western Union-Southern Westchester-
346 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2023
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY...
* WHAT...Snow, sleet and rain expected. Total snow and
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches expected, with locally up to 6
inches possible.
* WHERE...In New Jersey, Eastern Bergen, Western Essex and
Western Union Counties. In New York, Southern Westchester
County.
* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Tuesday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Slow down and use caution while traveling.
Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.
More ice than snow, especially where the plows deposited roadway ice on the sidewalk. Still slushy in spots. Hoping the afternoon rain will wash the slush away.
The NWS has issued a Special Weather Statement warning that areas of black ice are likely to form, especially (but not exclusively) on untreated pavement, roads and sidewalks. Temperatures will be dropping this evening and tonight and will be below freezing shortly.
Our new snow gauge, that has been very lonely all winter, showed a bit under two inches. This was around 10am yesterday, so it may have compressed somewhat by then. If it hadn't been so wet, I think it could easily have been up around the five inch mark.
The type of weather we had Monday is really hard to measure. The "right" way to get a snow number is to take periodic readings on a board and clear the board after each reading, which ain't happening at my house, especially for a minor snowfall overnight. So I had to take a point reading in the morning, but by that time the snow had compressed and was contaminated by rain and had lost water volume due to melt. Best I could calculate using both a rain gauge and a melted core sample was 0.51" liquid and 2.5" snow depth at 8:30 am. Both those readings were low, though.
I would venture we got 3 - 3.5 inches and 0.60" melted water, looking at all the data.
Chance of light rain or snow this afternoon changing over to likely rain tonight and chance of rain tomorrow morning. No measurable snow accumulation expected. Could be breezy overnight. Temps in the low 40s throughout.
He's run the euro out beyond its reliability limits and found a very cold airmass in the upper atmosphere. At best you could say, might be cold next weekend, but I wouldn't make book on it. For what it's worth, the model is dry over the northeast in that time frame as well, and both the euro and gfs have the 2 meter temps in the low 30s. But this is very low quality data at 200+ hours.
Accuweather say a coating to an inch.
Weather.com says 3-5 inches? Earlier it said 5-8 inches.